Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
Super League, China · 2026-10-10 · 13:35 CET
LWLWW
WDLWLThe score model made a Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 80%). It finished 7:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 2.73 – 1.52 Yunnan Yukun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua win | 62.8% | 59.7% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.9% | 19.2% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Yunnan Yukun win | 19.3% | 21.2% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.7% | 78.2% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61.5% | 61.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 73.5% | 73.2% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 59.5% | 55.8% | +3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shanghai Shenhua 43.3 / Yunnan Yukun 33 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.