Qingdao Hainiu vs Beijing Guoan
Super League, China · 2026-10-09 · 13:35 CET
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WDDDWThe score model made a Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qingdao Hainiu 1.23 – 2.01 Beijing Guoan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 22.5% | 14.4% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 18.3% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Beijing Guoan win | 54.8% | 67.3% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 68.8% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 48.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 60.2% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 47.1% | -13.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qingdao Hainiu 42.4 / Beijing Guoan 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.