Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Qingdao West Coast
Super League, China · 2026-08-29 · 13:00 CET
LDDWW
DDWDDThe score model made a Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1.36 – 0.94 Qingdao West Coast.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 46.2% | 47.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.4% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Qingdao West Coast win | 25.5% | 24.7% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 48.1% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 27.6% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 52.0% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 32.5% | -9.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 44.2 / Qingdao West Coast 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.