Qingdao Hainiu vs Wuhan Three Towns
Super League, China · 2026-08-29 · 11:00 CET
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DWDDLThe score model made a Qingdao Hainiu win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:5 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qingdao Hainiu 1.55 – 1.25 Wuhan Three Towns.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 44.2% | 35.0% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 30.3% | 38.5% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 56.5% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 35.6% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 60.4% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 38.6% | -4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qingdao Hainiu 43.8 / Wuhan Three Towns 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.