Henan Songshan Longmen vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Super League, China · 2026-08-29 · 14:00 CET
LDDDD
LDLDLThe score model made a Henan Songshan Longmen win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Henan Songshan Longmen 1.29 – 0.86 Chongqing Tonglianglong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 46.2% | 56.0% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.0% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong win | 24.5% | 19.1% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.4% | 49.7% | -13.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.1% | 29.0% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 50.1% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 34.1% | -12.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Henan Songshan Longmen 44.3 / Chongqing Tonglianglong 20.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.