Dalian Yingbo vs Beijing Guoan
Super League, China · 2026-08-28 · 13:35 CET
LDWDW
WWDDDThe score model made a Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dalian Yingbo 1.34 – 1.75 Beijing Guoan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo win | 29.1% | 31.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.3% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Beijing Guoan win | 46.9% | 44.6% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 65.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 45.5% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 66.7% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 45.2% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dalian Yingbo 33.9 / Beijing Guoan 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.