Shanghai Port vs Qingdao Hainiu
Super League, China · 2026-08-23 · 13:35 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Shanghai Port win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Shanghai Port win — 74.0% vs 70.5% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shanghai Port 2.68 – 0.94 Qingdao Hainiu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Port win | 74.0% | 70.5% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 15.4% | 17.6% | -2.2% |
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 10.6% | 11.9% | -1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | 67.1% | +3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.0% | 46.9% | +2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 56.3% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.1% | 46.0% | -0.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shanghai Port 45.2 / Qingdao Hainiu 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.