Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Dalian Yingbo
Super League, China · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
DLLLD
LDWLDThe score model makes a Chongqing Tonglianglong win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 56.9% vs 45.3% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chongqing Tonglianglong 1.30 – 0.88 Dalian Yingbo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tonglianglong win | 46.0% | 39.3% | +6.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 28.5% | +0.5% |
| Dalian Yingbo win | 25.0% | 32.2% | -7.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.4% | 48.9% | -11.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 28.7% | -10.9% |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 54.7% | -11.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.6% | -7.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chongqing Tonglianglong 19.5 / Dalian Yingbo 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.