Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Super League, China · 2026-08-22 · 13:00 CET
DWDDL
LDDWWThe score model made a Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.33 – 1.34 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 36.4% | 42.0% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.1% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 36.9% | 30.9% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 54.1% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 33.3% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 58.0% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 36.9% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wuhan Three Towns 43 / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.