Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Super League, China · 2026-08-22 · 13:00 CET
LWWDL
WWWLLThe score model makes an Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.8% vs 63.1% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.33 – 1.34 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 36.4% | 40.4% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.3% | -0.7% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 36.9% | 32.3% | +4.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 54.1% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 33.7% | -5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 58.3% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 36.9% | -8.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wuhan Three Towns 43.2 / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.