Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Super League, China · 2026-08-22 · 14:00 CET
DWWWW
DWLWWThe score model makes a Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 78%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 52.6% vs 48.0% implied (+4.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 2.69 – 1.42 Yunnan Yukun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan win | 64.3% | 63.5% | +0.9% |
| Draw | 17.4% | 19.4% | -2.0% |
| Yunnan Yukun win | 18.2% | 17.1% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.8% | 73.4% | +4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58.9% | 54.5% | +4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 70.9% | 67.1% | +3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.4% | 52.0% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Beijing Guoan 45.2 / Yunnan Yukun 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.