Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Super League, China · 2026-08-22 · 14:00 CET
WWDDD
WWDLWThe score model made a Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 78%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 2.70 – 1.42 Yunnan Yukun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan win | 64.3% | 63.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.4% | 19.1% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Yunnan Yukun win | 18.2% | 17.1% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.9% | 73.9% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58.9% | 55.4% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 70.9% | 67.2% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.4% | 52.3% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Beijing Guoan 45 / Yunnan Yukun 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.