Zhejiang Professional vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 13:35 CET
LWDWL
DDDDLThe score model makes an Chengdu Rongcheng win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 61.2% vs 52.7% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zhejiang Professional 1.39 – 1.77 Chengdu Rongcheng.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang Professional win | 30.3% | 33.2% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.6% | -1.1% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng win | 46.2% | 42.2% | +4.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 67.2% | -6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 47.3% | -8.5% |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 68.4% | -5.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 46.6% | -7.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zhejiang Professional 43.8 / Chengdu Rongcheng 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.