Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Yingbo
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 14:00 CET
WWDLW
LDWDWThe score model made a Yunnan Yukun win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.14 – 1.31 Dalian Yingbo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun win | 56.1% | 44.5% | +11.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.0% | 23.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Dalian Yingbo win | 22.8% | 31.8% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 68.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.1% | 49.2% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 69.1% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.7% | 47.3% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yunnan Yukun 32.6 / Dalian Yingbo 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.