Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Yingbo
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 14:00 CET
LDWLW
WWLDWThe score model makes a Yunnan Yukun win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Yunnan Yukun win — 56.2% vs 45.0% implied (+11.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.14 – 1.31 Dalian Yingbo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun win | 56.2% | 45.0% | +11.2% |
| Draw | 20.9% | 24.1% | -3.1% |
| Dalian Yingbo win | 22.9% | 30.9% | -8.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 67.8% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 48.4% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 68.2% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.8% | 47.0% | +4.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yunnan Yukun 32.7 / Dalian Yingbo 31.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.