Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Beijing Guoan
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 13:35 CET
WWWWL
WDDWWThe score model makes an Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.0% vs 63.7% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1.43 – 1.44 Beijing Guoan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 37.3% | 28.7% | +8.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.2% | -1.9% |
| Beijing Guoan win | 37.4% | 44.1% | -6.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 53.1% | +1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 32.4% | -0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 56.9% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 36.3% | -9.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 43.8 / Beijing Guoan 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.