Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Beijing Guoan
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 13:35 CET
LDDWW
WWDDDThe score model made a Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1.43 – 1.43 Beijing Guoan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 37.3% | 33.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.0% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Beijing Guoan win | 37.3% | 39.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 56.1% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 35.2% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 59.5% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 38.1% | -11.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 43.6 / Beijing Guoan 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.