Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Songshan Longmen
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 14:00 CET
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LDDDDThe score model made a Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 1.87 – 1.00 Henan Songshan Longmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua win | 57.6% | 50.4% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 19.7% | 25.9% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 66.3% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 46.3% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 66.5% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 45.7% | -8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shanghai Shenhua 43.7 / Henan Songshan Longmen 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.