Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Songshan Longmen
Super League, China · 2026-08-15 · 14:00 CET
WLLLW
LWWDDThe score model makes a Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.4% vs 54.5% implied (+12.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 1.88 – 1.00 Henan Songshan Longmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua win | 57.6% | 50.4% | +7.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.7% | -1.0% |
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 19.7% | 25.9% | -6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 65.8% | -10.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 45.5% | -12.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 65.4% | -11.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 45.2% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shanghai Shenhua 43.9 / Henan Songshan Longmen 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.