Qingdao West Coast vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Super League, China · 2026-08-14 · 14:00 CET
LDWWD
DDLLLThe score model makes a Qingdao West Coast win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 64.2% vs 51.6% implied (+12.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qingdao West Coast 1.20 – 0.93 Chongqing Tonglianglong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao West Coast win | 41.8% | 45.1% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 27.7% | +2.0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong win | 28.4% | 27.2% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.8% | 48.4% | -12.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.7% | 28.1% | -11.4% |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 53.0% | -10.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 33.1% | -10.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qingdao West Coast 39.7 / Chongqing Tonglianglong 18.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.