Chapecoense-SC vs Vasco
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-11-16 · 00:30 CET
LWLDL
LWWWDThe score model makes a Vasco win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chapecoense-SC win — 24.7% vs 18.5% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chapecoense-SC 1.26 – 1.91 Vasco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC win | 24.7% | 18.5% | +6.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 23.1% | +0.1% |
| Vasco win | 52.1% | 58.3% | -6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 58.0% | +3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.0% | 37.5% | +1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 56.5% | +4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 40.1% | +1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chapecoense-SC 20.8 / Vasco 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chapecoense-SC vs Vasco in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.