Sao Paulo vs Santos
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-04 · 01:00 CET
LWWLW
DWWWWThe score model makes a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 74.1% vs 68.3% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.52 – 1.01 Santos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 48.5% | 46.8% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.7% | -1.0% |
| Santos win | 24.8% | 25.6% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 46.3% | -0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 26.0% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 50.8% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 31.7% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Paulo 52.7 / Santos 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.