Sao Paulo vs Santos
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-04 · 01:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.49 – 1.04 Santos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 47.1% | 47.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Santos win | 26.0% | 23.6% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 43.9% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 24.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 48.9% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 30.5% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Paulo 53 / Santos 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.