Athletico-PR vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-22 · 00:30 CET
DLDWD
WWLLWThe score model made an Athletico-PR win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletico-PR 1.63 – 1.08 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR win | 49.7% | 42.5% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 28.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Bahia win | 24.8% | 29.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 50.4% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 29.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 55.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 34.9% | +7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletico-PR 36.6 / Bahia 53.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Athletico-PR vs Bahia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.