Flamengo RJ vs Vitoria
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-11 · 00:30 CET
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LLWDLThe score model made a Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flamengo RJ 2.26 – 0.64 Vitoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ win | 74.0% | 74.5% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.3% | 16.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Vitoria win | 8.6% | 9.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 57.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 36.0% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 43.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 39.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flamengo RJ 52.3 / Vitoria 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.