Flamengo RJ vs Vitoria
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-11 · 00:30 CET
LWWDD
LWDLLThe score model makes a Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 64.7% vs 59.7% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flamengo RJ 2.28 – 0.65 Vitoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ win | 74.1% | 76.7% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 17.1% | 15.9% | +1.2% |
| Vitoria win | 8.8% | 7.5% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 58.9% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 37.8% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 43.0% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 40.3% | -5.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flamengo RJ 51.5 / Vitoria 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.