Palmeiras vs Internacional
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 21:00 CET
WDDWD
DLLWLThe score model made a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.02 – 0.70 Internacional.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras win | 68.1% | 59.6% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 24.5% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Internacional win | 11.7% | 15.9% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 48.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 27.9% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 47.6% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 33.5% | +5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palmeiras 52 / Internacional 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.