Palmeiras vs Internacional
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 19:00
The score model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.02 – 0.70 Internacional.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras win | 68.1% | 58.5% | +9.6% |
| Draw | 20.1% | 24.8% | -4.7% |
| Internacional win | 11.8% | 16.7% | -4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 48.2% | +3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 27.9% | +1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 47.6% | -3.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 33.0% | +6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palmeiras 52.2 / Internacional 52.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.