Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 16:00 CET
WLWLW
DLWDWThe score model made a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.38 – 0.96 Mirassol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro win | 46.2% | 54.4% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Mirassol win | 25.9% | 18.8% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 48.5% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 28.3% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 50.4% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 33.3% | +3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cruzeiro 50.8 / Mirassol 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.