Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 14:00
The score model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.38 – 0.96 Mirassol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro win | 46.3% | 56.0% | -9.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.5% | +2.3% |
| Mirassol win | 25.9% | 18.5% | +7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 48.8% | -7.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 28.3% | -7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 49.3% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 33.5% | +3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cruzeiro 51 / Mirassol 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.