Bragantino vs Corinthians
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 21:30
The score model makes a Bragantino win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bragantino 1.29 – 0.98 Corinthians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 43.1% | 44.7% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 29.2% | -0.5% |
| Corinthians win | 28.2% | 26.1% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 43.1% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 23.1% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 45.6% | 49.1% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 30.1% | +7.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bragantino 51.2 / Corinthians 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.