Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 19:00
The score model makes a Gremio win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gremio 1.35 – 1.07 Sao Paulo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio win | 43.1% | 39.1% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.4% | -1.7% |
| Sao Paulo win | 29.3% | 31.5% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 45.3% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 25.5% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 51.5% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 31.6% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gremio 50.2 / Sao Paulo 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.