Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 21:00 CET
LWLLL
LWWLWThe score model made a Gremio win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gremio 1.35 – 1.07 Sao Paulo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio win | 43.0% | 40.3% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Sao Paulo win | 29.3% | 29.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 43.8% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 23.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 50.5% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 29.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gremio 50.1 / Sao Paulo 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.