Fluminense vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-30 · 02:30 CET
WLWWL
WWLLWThe score model made a Fluminense win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.48 – 0.94 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 49.4% | 52.5% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.3% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Bahia win | 23.8% | 21.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 51.8% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 31.0% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 54.1% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 35.5% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 53.3 / Bahia 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fluminense vs Bahia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.