Fluminense vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-30 · 00:30
The score model makes a Fluminense win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.55 – 0.97 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 50.7% | 52.5% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.3% | -0.5% |
| Bahia win | 23.5% | 21.2% | +2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 51.8% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 31.0% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 54.1% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 35.5% | -5.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 52.5 / Bahia 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.