Waregem vs Gent
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-10 · 20:45 CET
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WWWDWThe score model makes a Waregem win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Waregem win — 37.8% vs 33.2% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waregem 1.41 – 1.35 Gent.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 37.8% | 33.2% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.3% | -1.3% |
| Gent win | 35.2% | 38.5% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 48.2% | +4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 27.4% | +2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 54.0% | +2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 33.3% | +2.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waregem 29.3 / Gent 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.