Waregem vs Gent
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-10 · 20:45 CET
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WWWLWThe score model made a Waregem win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waregem 1.40 – 1.35 Gent.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 37.8% | 33.8% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 30.0% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Gent win | 35.1% | 36.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 43.0% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 23.4% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 49.9% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 30.0% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waregem 29 / Gent 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Waregem vs Gent in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.