Westerlo vs Waregem
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-30 · 19:15 CET
LDWWW
WDWLLThe score model made a Westerlo win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Westerlo 1.62 – 1.61 Waregem.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 38.0% | 31.4% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.7% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Waregem win | 37.2% | 42.9% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | 61.3% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 40.7% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 64.0% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 41.8% | +3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Westerlo 44.2 / Waregem 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.