Gent vs Club Brugge KV
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-30 · 13:30 CET
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WLWWWThe score model made a Club Brugge KV win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gent 1.23 – 1.80 Club Brugge KV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 25.4% | 19.9% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Club Brugge KV win | 49.9% | 56.5% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 57.7% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% | 36.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 57.3% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 39.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gent 43.4 / Club Brugge KV 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.