Antwerp vs St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
DLLLL
WLWLLThe score model made an Antwerp win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Antwerp 1.44 – 1.16 St. Truiden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 42.7% | 39.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.7% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| St. Truiden win | 29.4% | 33.4% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 55.5% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 34.1% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 59.0% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 37.3% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Antwerp 44.3 / St. Truiden 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.