RAAL La Louviere vs KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LDLWL
LDLLDThe score model made a KV Mechelen win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RAAL La Louviere 1.23 – 1.25 KV Mechelen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louviere win | 34.8% | 39.3% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 29.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| KV Mechelen win | 36.0% | 30.8% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 43.8% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 24.0% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 50.4% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 30.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RAAL La Louviere 25.5 / KV Mechelen 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.