RFC Liege vs Anderlecht U23
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DLLLL
LLLWWThe score model makes an RFC Liege win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Anderlecht U23 win — 36.5% vs 31.3% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RFC Liege 1.63 – 1.52 Anderlecht U23.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RFC Liege win | 41.5% | 44.3% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 24.4% | -2.4% |
| Anderlecht U23 win | 36.5% | 31.3% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 62.6% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 42.0% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 64.2% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 43.2% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: RFC Liege 36.9 / Anderlecht U23 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open RFC Liege vs Anderlecht U23 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.