K. Lierse S.K. vs Sporting Lokeren
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-20 · 20:00 CET
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WDWLDThe score model makes a Sporting Lokeren win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.8% vs 59.8% implied (+10.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: K. Lierse S.K. 1.29 – 1.49 Sporting Lokeren.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lierse S.K. win | 33.7% | 24.7% | +9.1% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.7% | -1.2% |
| Sporting Lokeren win | 42.8% | 50.7% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 60.7% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 40.2% | -10.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 61.5% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 42.0% | -6.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: K. Lierse S.K. 38.5 / Sporting Lokeren 33 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open K. Lierse S.K. vs Sporting Lokeren in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.