Sumqayit vs Gabala
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-10-10 · 17:30 CET
WWLDD
LLWDLThe score model made a Sumqayit win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sumqayit 1.36 – 1.00 Gabala.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumqayit win | 45.6% | 37.8% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 30.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Gabala win | 27.8% | 32.2% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 42.4% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 22.9% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 49.2% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 29.7% | +1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sumqayit 42.7 / Gabala 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sumqayit vs Gabala in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.