Neftci Baku vs Sabah Baku
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-10-09 · 17:30 CET
LWWWD
WWWWDThe score model made a Sabah Baku win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neftci Baku 1.35 – 1.59 Sabah Baku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftci Baku win | 32.9% | 34.0% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 27.7% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Sabah Baku win | 43.8% | 38.3% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | 54.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.9% | 34.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 58.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 37.6% | +2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Neftci Baku 43.8 / Sabah Baku 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.