Araz vs Kapaz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-10-09 · 14:00 CET
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WLWDWThe score model made an Araz win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Araz 1.52 – 0.96 Kapaz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araz win | 51.0% | 42.0% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 27.8% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Kapaz win | 24.4% | 30.3% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 50.3% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 29.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 55.0% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 37.4% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Araz 41.6 / Kapaz 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.