Altach vs Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-10-11 · 14:30 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made a Wolfsberger AC win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altach 1.18 – 1.20 Wolfsberger AC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altach win | 34.4% | 47.8% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 25.2% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Wolfsberger AC win | 35.0% | 27.0% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% | 58.8% | -16.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% | 38.1% | -16.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 61.0% | -11.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 40.3% | -11.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altach 34.8 / Wolfsberger AC 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.