Wolfsberger AC vs LASK
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-01 · 19:30 CET
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WWWLDThe score model made an LASK win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC 1.31 – 1.59 LASK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC win | 30.3% | 16.2% | +14.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 20.3% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| LASK win | 42.6% | 63.5% | -21.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 65.1% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 44.5% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 59.7% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 44.7% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wolfsberger AC 35.7 / LASK 34.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.