SK Rapid vs Sturm Graz
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
WWLWW
WDLWLThe score model made a Sturm Graz win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SK Rapid 1.25 – 1.27 Sturm Graz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid win | 34.7% | 44.6% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 25.2% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Sturm Graz win | 35.5% | 30.3% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 59.7% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 38.7% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 62.0% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 40.8% | -12.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SK Rapid 35.8 / Sturm Graz 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.