Salzburg vs Austria Vienna
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
WWWDW
WLLWDThe score model made a Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salzburg 1.78 – 1.02 Austria Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salzburg win | 54.1% | 70.4% | -16.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 17.6% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna win | 20.1% | 11.9% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 65.6% | -12.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 45.0% | -14.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 55.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | 45.2% | +0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salzburg 34.1 / Austria Vienna 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.