Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-29 · 17:00 CET
LLDWD
LDLLLThe score model made a Wolfsberger AC win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.38 – 1.61 Wolfsberger AC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK win | 31.7% | 35.8% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.0% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Wolfsberger AC win | 41.9% | 37.2% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | 53.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% | 32.8% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 58.3% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 36.5% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grazer AK 30.7 / Wolfsberger AC 34.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.