Altach vs Hartberg
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
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LWWDDThe score model made an Altach win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altach 1.09 – 1.03 Hartberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altach win | 35.4% | 52.1% | -16.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.3% | 26.3% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Hartberg win | 32.4% | 21.6% | +10.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 50.3% | -14.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.4% | 29.2% | -12.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 52.6% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.1% | 34.0% | -13.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altach 34.6 / Hartberg 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.