Altach vs Hartberg
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
DWLWL
LWLLLThe score model makes a Altach win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 64.7% vs 51.1% implied (+13.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altach 1.08 – 1.03 Hartberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altach win | 35.1% | 51.7% | -16.6% |
| Draw | 32.6% | 26.4% | +6.3% |
| Hartberg win | 32.3% | 21.9% | +10.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.3% | 48.9% | -13.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.3% | 28.5% | -12.2% |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 51.4% | -7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 33.7% | -13.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altach 34.7 / Hartberg 34.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.