Ried vs Grazer AK
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-21 · 19:30 CET
WLDLL
DWLWLThe score model makes a Ried win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 54.3% vs 48.4% implied (+5.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ried 1.62 – 1.24 Grazer AK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ried win | 45.1% | 46.0% | -0.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.5% | -0.7% |
| Grazer AK win | 28.0% | 26.5% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 48.4% | +5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 27.9% | +4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 52.7% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 33.3% | +3.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ried 27.7 / Grazer AK 30.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.