Admira vs ASK Voitsberg
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-10-11 · 10:30 CET
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DLLDWThe score model makes an Admira win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Admira win — 54.1% vs 34.3% implied (+19.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Admira 1.53 – 0.82 ASK Voitsberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Admira win | 54.1% | 34.3% | +19.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.3% | +0.4% |
| ASK Voitsberg win | 20.2% | 40.4% | -20.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 59.8% | -18.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 39.2% | -18.0% |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 62.0% | -18.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 40.9% | -9.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Admira 38.5 / ASK Voitsberg 15.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.