A. Salzburg vs Floridsdorfer AC
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-10-10 · 15:30 CET
LWLDL
DWWLWThe score model makes a Floridsdorfer AC win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.9% vs 69.1% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: A. Salzburg 1.09 – 1.26 Floridsdorfer AC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Salzburg win | 31.8% | 37.5% | -5.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.4% | +0.4% |
| Floridsdorfer AC win | 40.4% | 35.2% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 50.8% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 30.9% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 55.9% | -8.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 35.4% | -4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: A. Salzburg 22.9 / Floridsdorfer AC 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.