Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am)
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-10-09 · 18:30 CET
LWDDL
WDWWDThe score model made a Kapfenberg win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kapfenberg 1.53 – 1.52 Austria Vienna (Am).
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapfenberg win | 38.3% | 32.5% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.6% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 37.6% | 41.9% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 58.7% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% | 38.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | 61.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.3% | 40.7% | +7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kapfenberg 38.3 / Austria Vienna (Am) 24.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.