Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am)
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-10-09 · 18:30 CET
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WLWLWThe score model makes a Kapfenberg win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 48.2% vs 41.4% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kapfenberg 1.53 – 1.52 Austria Vienna (Am).
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kapfenberg win | 38.2% | 32.8% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.5% | -1.5% |
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 37.8% | 41.7% | -3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 59.8% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 39.6% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | 62.1% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.2% | 41.4% | +6.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kapfenberg 38.6 / Austria Vienna (Am) 25.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.