First Vienna vs St. Polten
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-10-09 · 20:30 CET
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LLWWWThe score model makes a First Vienna win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 63.1% vs 42.2% implied (+20.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: First Vienna 1.12 – 1.05 St. Polten.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna win | 37.2% | 47.8% | -10.6% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.5% | +3.8% |
| St. Polten win | 33.6% | 26.7% | +6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 57.8% | -20.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 37.1% | -19.7% |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 59.4% | -15.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 39.6% | -16.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: First Vienna 38.7 / St. Polten 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.