Sturm Graz II vs SK Rapid II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-30 · 10:30 CET
LLWDD
WLLLLThe score model made a Sturm Graz II win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 5:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sturm Graz II 1.56 – 1.55 SK Rapid II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II win | 38.4% | 34.2% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 25.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| SK Rapid II win | 38.0% | 40.5% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 63.1% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | 42.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 65.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 43.4% | -1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sturm Graz II 38.7 / SK Rapid II 33.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.