Austria Vienna (Am) vs Bregenz
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-29 · 18:30 CET
WLWLW
DWLWLThe score model made an Austria Vienna (Am) win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Austria Vienna (Am) 1.81 – 1.34 Bregenz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 48.6% | 38.4% | +10.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 26.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Bregenz win | 28.5% | 35.2% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 56.2% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 35.4% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 60.2% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.7% | 38.1% | +14.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Austria Vienna (Am) 24.1 / Bregenz 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.