First Vienna vs Amstetten
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-28 · 18:30 CET
DWWWW
DDLWWThe score model made a First Vienna win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: First Vienna 1.45 – 1.12 Amstetten.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna win | 44.6% | 42.2% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Amstetten win | 28.9% | 31.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 56.3% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 35.5% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 59.4% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 38.3% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: First Vienna 38.9 / Amstetten 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.