ASK Voitsberg vs Liefering
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-28 · 18:30 CET
DLLDW
DWWLLThe score model made a Liefering win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ASK Voitsberg 1.21 – 1.53 Liefering.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASK Voitsberg win | 29.9% | 44.0% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 23.8% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Liefering win | 44.6% | 32.2% | +12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 67.8% | -16.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 47.2% | -17.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 68.7% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 46.1% | -10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ASK Voitsberg 13.5 / Liefering 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.