Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-22 · 17:30 CET
DWLWL
LLWDDThe score model made a Bregenz win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bregenz 1.83 – 1.68 Sturm Graz II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bregenz win | 41.8% | 47.1% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.1% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Sturm Graz II win | 35.8% | 27.8% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 61.4% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% | 41.0% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.3% | 63.1% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 42.1% | +5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bregenz 36.1 / Sturm Graz II 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.