Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-22 · 17:30 CET
DLLWD
LLLWLThe score model makes a Bregenz win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 67.8% vs 61.5% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bregenz 1.82 – 1.67 Sturm Graz II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bregenz win | 41.8% | 44.2% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.9% | -3.3% |
| Sturm Graz II win | 35.7% | 29.9% | +5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | 61.5% | +6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.2% | 41.3% | +4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | 63.9% | +4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 42.3% | +5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bregenz 36.3 / Sturm Graz II 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.